Mainstream malaise: how minor parties could decide outcome of New Zealand’s election

Support for Labour and National has dropped to its lowest point in two decades – while backing for the likes of Act and NZ First has risen

As New Zealand’s election approaches, there is a swing away from the major parties in favour of smaller groupings on the political fringes that could end up deciding the direction of the next government.

Support for parties at the centre of New Zealand politics has dropped to its lowest point in two decades with Labour on 27% and National on 34.5%, according to the September Guardian Essential poll. The combined “centre” now sits at 61.5% – its lowest point since 2002 – down from 81% at the 2017 election and 76% in 2020.

Act: Polling at about 10%, Act appears on track to hold influence in any centre-right coalition should the National party end up in the driver’s seat. Its priorities include significant cuts to government welfare, spending and regulation, tougher criminal sentences and an end to “co-governance” with Māori.

NZ First: The populist party says it is taking aim at “woke extremism”, which includes getting rid of Māori names on government institutions and removing gender education from the curriculum. It is also campaigning against what it calls “separatism”- relating to mechanisms that would give Māori more opportunity to have a say in their affairs.

Green party: The leftwing Greens, a traditional Labour partner, sit at 11% in the last Guardian poll. The party wants to tackle climate change, build warm affordable housing, create greener cities, and strengthen commitments to the Treaty of Waitangi, New Zealand’s founding document that provides a framework of principles for the relationship between Māori and the crown.

Te Pāti Māori: The party advocates for indigenous rights, in particular for its assertion of mana motuhake (self-determination) and the liberation of Māori. It believes the key to Māori wellbeing lies in Māori-led solutions and, while it is ambivalent about aligning itself with any major party, it has ruled out working with National.

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