8 Tips To Improve Your Relationship, Courtesy Of International Relations

A big part of the science of international relations is the study of the causes of war. But it’s also about how nations can cooperate — like signing treaties, providing aid and generally promising not to kill each others’ citizens. It considers humans on the grandest, most violent scale — asking how we can overcome what might be a fundamentally selfish, fearful human nature to not just coexist but do better than we could alone.

But over 15 years of studying, researching and teaching international relations, I’ve learned that it’s also a deeply personal science, involving commitment, communication and trust. Those things can help reduce conflict and increase cooperation between nations … and people (in my experience, at least). So, seeing how it’s Valentine’s Day, I bring you eight pieces of relationship advice courtesy of international relations.


1. Say what you mean, and prove it

We’ve all heard the adage that you should pay attention to what someone does, not what they say. International relations scholars agree. Countries that send “costly signals” — taking an action that incurs some cost, such as moving troops away from a border or disabling a nuclear program — are better able to communicate their intentions in a convincing way to other countries.

You can see some of that idea at work on Valentine’s Day: Buying roses makes that “I love you” more credible, said James Morrow, a professor of political science at the University of Michigan and co-author of “The Logic of Political Survival.” “An engagement ring is also a costly signal,” he added.

You can apply this idea to other areas of your relationship too. If you want your partner to believe that you’ll finally make time for a vacation, for example, book the tickets.1

2. Have an audience

Proposing at a baseball game may seem cheesy and cliché, but there may be something to it. Leaders who generate “audience costs” — that is, they make public promises — tend to keep those promises more often than leaders who keep their intentions to themselves or confined to a small circle. The idea here is simple: accountability. The trick is you need an audience whose opinions matter to you. That’s, in part, why democratic leaders are often better at keeping promises than authoritarian ones — the former are more accountable to their public.

Likewise, you might consider proposing in front of your parents or a group of friends rather than a bunch of drunk strangers watching a ball game.

3. Reciprocity is king

Many scholars considered sustaining international cooperation without a central world government nearly impossible until they discovered the power of the simple rule of “tit-for-tat”: If another country does something nice for you, do something nice in return. They will then return the favor, then you will, and so on — until you’re both living happily ever after.

So, if your partner takes out the trash this week, do it the following week, and you’ll never have to discuss it again. Domestic bliss is yours! “You can also think about tit-for-tat as implicit punishment,” said James Fearon, a professor of political science at Stanford University, “If you don’t take out the trash, I’ll stop walking the dog….”

4. But so is forgiveness

OK, your partner didn’t take out the trash last week. You’re entitled to not take it out this week. But then, forgive and start over. Research shows that punishing someone repeatedly for one wrongdoing — similar to a strategy called “grim trigger” — is less effective at sustaining long-term cooperation than just punishing a nation once and moving on.2

5. No disagreement is an island

Your partner wants to use your first vacation in forever to go to the beach. But you want to go to the mountains. Stalemate! Well, maybe not. There are lots of creative ways to solve an impasse like this, including “issue linkage” — for example, where a person’s advantage in one domain can be countered by providing a benefit to the other person in a different domain, making what would be an otherwise lousy outcome much better. Let’s say Country A wants Country B to remove steel tariffs. Country B could agree, but only on the condition that Country A curbs its greenhouse gas emissions. So, go ahead and give in on the beach — but then you’re entitled to not do the dishes for a week.

6. Careful, conflict is easily escalated

One of the most enduring puzzles about war is that it breaks out even though both parties would be better off coming to a peaceful, negotiated settlement. The same thing can happen in relationships, where after a huge fight you wonder what it was you were fighting about in the first place.

One reason escalation is so easy in both scenarios is that there’s a temptation for each side to bluff about how far they’re willing to go to get the other side to back down. This is because each side has an incentive to act like they care more about getting their preferred outcome than the other side so that when the time comes to draw up an agreement, they get the better deal. The problem is, when both sides (rationally) pretend to care more than they do, they may find themselves in a position where they’ve escalated and can’t back down (thanks to the aforementioned audience costs, for example). In technical terms, this means they’ve shrunk the bargaining range. Trump shouldn’t threaten North Korea with a nuclear attack unless he’s prepared to do it; likewise, don’t threaten to move out unless you really think that’s the solution.

7. The right third party can help

Third parties intervening in a dispute between two countries can help them keep peace, especially when the arbiter is seen as legitimate by both sides. Get a good therapist, and get everyone’s buy-in.

8. Even symbolic stuff can make a difference

Some research suggests that signing an international agreement, like the Paris Climate Accord, can compel countries to change their behavior, but other research shows agreements only attract countries that are already following the rules. Marriage may operate the same way — it could change your behavior, but it’s more likely only going to reflect the relationship as it is. Still, neither are necessarily useless — agreements of all kinds can serve as “focal points” that clarify what kind of behavior the other is going to follow.

So there you have it! All of these are easier said than done, of course. We still see countries go to war and we still see couples fight. But these are the strategies people use to cope with “uncertainty about the future and the intentions of others,” Alexander Von Hagen-Jamar, a postdoctoral fellow at Lund University, said.

“Leaders of countries and people in relationships are both constantly wary of having their territories attacked or their hearts broken,” said Sarah Croco, a professor of political science at the University of Maryland.

Yet, it all may be worth the risk of conflict if it helps us get to cooperation, because cooperation is more than just the absence of peace. It means being able to accomplish things we can’t alone — like operate an International Space Station or, you know, fall in love.

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【平昌冬季五輪・ショートトラック女子】バ韓国選手が失格!! 代わりにメダルを獲得した選手のインスタが炎上して閉鎖に追い込まれてしまう!!

















 だが競技を見守っていた韓国ファンの考えは違った。ブタンも崔ミン禎を押したのに、崔ミン禎だけが失格にされたというのだ。一部はブタンのインスタグラムに悪質なコメントを残した。ハングルで書かれたものもあったが、「dirty medal(汚いメダル)」など英語で書かれたものもあった。結局、ブタンはアカウントの閉鎖に追い込まれた。カナダCBCは「韓国人が審判の代わりにブタンを批判した」と伝えた。





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【緊急拡散】トランプが日本の敵だと確定してしまう      アメカスと戦争になるぞ!!!

【緊急拡散】トランプが日本の敵だと確定してしまう      アメカスと戦争になるぞ!!!


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1 :納豆スパ ★:2018/02/13(火) 06:32:11.42 ID:CAP_USER9.net
トランプ氏、日本が貿易で「殺人」と非難 対抗措置を警告
2018年2月13日 5:44 発信地:ワシントンD.C./米国

【2月13日 AFP】ドナルド・トランプ(Donald Trump)米大統領は12日、日本を含む貿易相手国が「殺人を犯しながら逃げている」と非難し、対抗措置を取る構えを示した。

トランプ氏はホワイトハウス(White House)で開かれたインフラ関連の会合で、出席した閣僚や州・地方自治体の関係者を前に、「他国に利用されてばかりではいられない」と述べ、「わが国は対中日韓で巨額を失っている。これらの国は殺人を犯しながら逃げている」と指摘。






134 :名無しさん@1周年:2018/02/13(火) 07:15:48.16 ID:Wm2R6T9+0.net
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【バ韓国・平昌冬季五輪】集団食中毒の原因が確定!! やはりウ●コ由来の大腸菌だったwwwwwww
























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The Economy Is Soaring, And Now So Is The Deficit. That’s A Bad Combination.

Between costly tax cuts and last week’s hefty spending bill, Congress is generating deficits that aren’t just large, they’re also unprecedented and potentially ominous. And even with some optimistic assumptions, President Trump’s latest budget proposal wouldn’t eliminate these deficits — in fact, the president is still angling to add a potentially costly infrastructure plan on top of current spending. But when the economy is this strong, deficits are usually small and shrinking, not ballooning back toward $1 trillion.

We are following a path that the country hasn’t traveled since World War II, with green economic pastures alongside rivers of red deficit ink. And that combination carries unique risks — not because the numbers are especially large (during the early years of the Obama administration, the deficit regularly exceeded $1 trillion) but because these deficits provide unneeded stimulus, which can overheat an economy already operating near full capacity. And in the process, they drain away funding that might be better reserved for fighting off the next recession.

Congress’s don’t-tax-but-spend approach is a root cause of the sizable deficit. Less than two months after Republicans passed a tax plan expected to cost the Treasury roughly $1.5 trillion, members of both parties agreed to raise spending by as much as $300 billion over two years, not including the new infrastructure and other spending increases in Trump’s budget proposal. Resistance to these moves has been inconsistent, with just two members of the entire Republican caucus voting against both the tax cuts and the spending bill despite the fact that deficit reduction has been a GOP rallying cry for decades. Even famously deficit-averse House Speaker Paul Ryan signed on.

But in plum times, deficits this big carry real risks. To start with, financing these deficits will require the government to borrow more money via the bond market. And to attract enough investors, they may have to pay higher interest rates, in the form of higher bond yields. But that only makes the budget situation even worse, forcing the government to pay back its debt at higher rates.

Private businesses would feel the squeeze, too. If the government starts paying higher interest on its bonds, companies will have to do the same for corporate bonds. That’ll make it costlier for them to raise money, reducing investment and even dampening overall productivity.

This was less of a problem during the Great Recession and its aftermath because bond yields were held down by the Federal Reserve. Among other things, the Fed engaged in a massive bond-purchasing enterprise called quantitative easing, which created a kind of backstop to ensure that the government could find buyers without having to raise payouts.

But the situation has now reversed. The Fed is raising interest rates, selling off bonds and generally trying to restrain an economy that’s growing at a pace the regulatory body fears may be unsustainable. And that means there is no backstop, just an environment where deficits could make it much more expensive for both government and private companies to borrow money.

And this is just one potential issue. Perhaps the greater risk of rising deficits is that they make it harder for the U.S. to fight off the next recession, whenever it comes. Combating a recession generally requires a twofold approach: Rapid interest-rate cuts at the Federal Reserve to encourage borrowing and stimulus spending from Congress, both of which inject cash into the economy. But the Fed is in a weak position now. It can’t cut rates by 4 or 5 percentage points, as it has in recent recessions, because interest rates aren’t that far above zero right now — and the Fed’s own projections suggest they won’t get much higher, even over the long run.

Congressional action is thus especially important, but here’s where deficits get in the way. When Congress passed stimulative tax cuts during the recession of 2001 and boosted direct spending with the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in 2009, they were starting from a position of relative comfort, as pre-recession budget deficits were either small or nonexistent. This time around, the U.S. is liable to enter its next recession with a substantial deficit, inflaming concerns that even necessary stimulus would be just too dangerous.

To appreciate just how unusual today’s deficits are, consider that the last time the job market was comparably robust was in the mid-2000s, and at that time the deficit declined from 3.4 percent of the GDP in 2004 to 1.1 percent in 2007. One cycle earlier, when the unemployment rate hit a 30-year low in 2000, the U.S. actually ran a budget surplus.

The charts below plot both annual deficits and what’s called the “output gap,” a measure of how close the U.S. economy is to its full potential. And the story comes together in the bottom panel, where the march of dots leading up and to the right shows that from 1950 until very recently, the U.S. has stuck close to the same general pattern: When the economy approached — or sometimes exceeded — its growth potential, deficits tended to be small, or even to flip into surpluses. But when the economy weakened, as in the early Obama years, budget shortfalls widened, sometimes dramatically.

What really stands out are the current projections, which show the U.S. walking into a deficit no-man’s-land, an otherwise empty area where growth is above expectations and yet deficits remain large. Although, in the years since 1950, we’ve had periods where the economy was stronger than today’s, and others where deficits were larger, we’ve never in that time seen a deficit this large in an economy this strong.

But the current deficits aren’t going to vanish; they’re expected to grow. Recent estimates from the Treasury Department show deficits increasing from $750 billion this year to just over $1 trillion by 2020. And while that does include the impact of tax cuts, a separate estimate from the bipartisan, pro-debt-reform Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget — which also accounts for last week’s expensive budget agreement — puts the likely 2020 gap at $1.24 trillion.

The good news is that fixing the deficit problem is relatively straightforward, a matter of finding the right balance of spending cuts and tax increases. And now would seem a propitious time for either approach approach, given that the economy doesn’t need any stimulus.

But deficit hawks seem to have become an endangered species in Washington, apparently outnumbered by the deficit shruggers, who’ve grown inured to the prophecies of impending budget doom. Democrats warned of deficits during the tax cut debate, and some Republicans found their anti-deficit voices last week in a failed effort to block the spending bill — but these critiques seemed mostly opportunistic, a handy weapon for attacking your opponents’ priorities that’s quickly sheathed when pursuing your own.

For now, neither party seems willing to make deficit reduction a top priority, which worsens the odds of finding a solution — and lets the risk accumulate along with the debt.

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スウェーデン中銀、政策金利-0.50%に据え置き 下期に利上げ見込む

[ストックホルム 14日 ロイター] - スウェーデン中央銀行は14日、市場の予想通り、政策金利をマイナス0.5%で据え置いた。中銀はインフレ見通しをわずかに引き下げた上で、2011年7月以来となる利上げを今年下半期に実施するとの見通しを示した。
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平成29年12月期決算短信〔日本基準〕(非連結) 2018/02/14 15:00







エニ 日足

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韓国の気象衛星が五輪中に御臨終キタ━━━━(°∀°)━━━━!!!www バ カ ス www

韓国の気象衛星が五輪中に御臨終キタ━━━━(°∀°)━━━━!!!www バ カ ス www

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1 :たんぽぽ ★:2018/02/13(火) 15:11:54.34 ID:CAP_USER*.net
2018.2.13 14:55









814 ::2018/02/13(火) 18:03:01.25 ID:WItaAnUT.net
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世界の自動車販売を中国市場が牽引(けんいん)する構図が、これまで以上に鮮明になっている。ホンダが2日に発表した2017年の中国での販売台数は前年比16%増の145万8000万台で、同社として過去最高を更新。 日産自動車は5日、中国で22年までに600億人民元(約1兆円)を投資し、年間販売台数を17年実績の1.7倍の260万台に引き上げる計画を公表した。22年の売上高は3000億元(約5兆円)に達する見通し。日本勢が“主戦場”としてきた米国で乗用車市場が頭打ちになる中、相対的に中国の存在感が高まっている。各社が中国市場で勢いを維持するには、電気自動車(EV)の投入など環境規制への対応が試されることになる。



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【韓国経済崩壊】韓国ロッテ会長に2年6カ月の実刑判決が下る!!!! 馬鹿共の醜い潰し合いが終わらない!!!! 自ら経済を壊し破滅する運命にある!!!! 2ch「犯罪者が経営する会社になった」「反日ロッテは潰れて良い」

【韓国経済崩壊】韓国ロッテ会長に2年6カ月の実刑判決が下る!!!! 馬鹿共の醜い潰し合いが終わらない!!!! 自ら経済を壊し破滅する運命にある!!!! 2ch「犯罪者が経営する会社になった」「反日ロッテは潰れて良い」

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1 :たんぽぽ ★:2018/02/13(火) 17:15:03.37 ID:CAP_USER*.net
2月13日 16時34分




4 ::2018/02/13(火) 17:18:42.76 ID:NWmQFrdD.net


8 :<丶`∀´>(´・ω・`)(`ハ´  )さん:2018/02/13(火) 17:22:19.96 ID:9+07FVbC.net
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[シンガポール 4日 ロイター] - テレビ画面や巨大ポスターが武装勢力の脅威を警告する駅構内では、武装した警官がパトロールしている。近くでは偽物の銃で武装した男たちがショッピングモールを襲うといったシミュレーション訓練が、最近になって頻繁に行われている。
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[ワシントン 13日 ロイター] - 米上院の与野党指導部が前週合意した2年間の1310億ドルの非国防支出増加について、下院歳出委員会のロドニー・フリーリングハイゼン委員長(共和党)は、満額を予算に組み入れるとの見方を示した。
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